January saw global share markets rise. The S&P and Russell 2000 rose by +6.18% and +8.40% respectively. Fixed Income markets rose over the course of the month as investors continued to speculate on a slower path of interest rate increases this year.
Breakaway momentum
On the 13/01 the US markets experienced breakaway momentum. This is the 25th time since 1945. For readers who haven’t heard of Breakaway momentum (some people call it a “breadth thrust”) occurs when ten-day total advances on the NYSE are greater than 1.97 times ten-day total NYSE declines. 96% of occurrences seen since 1945 have resulted in a positive 12 month performance, with the average being 20.7%.
Australian inflation
On the 25th January, Australian inflation numbers were released. It showed an annualised increase of 8.4% vs expectations of 7.6%. Prior to this release, the RBA had maintained its dovish stance on interest rates (versus other global central banks), however with such a large beat, expectations of further rate increases have now spiked.
As goes January, so goes the year
Generally attributed to Yale Hirsh of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, it has generated much excitement recently, as the US market’s return in January 2023 was not only positive, but it was among the highest 10% of monthly returns over the past 40 years. After a very tough 2022, investors are understandably looking for some hope that the year ahead will be better.
Portfolio performance
During January, The Frame Long Short Australian Equity Fund (FLSAEF) rose +1.34%, while the Frame Futures Fund 1F (FFF) declined by -1.20%.
Largest contributors for the FLSAEF were Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN), Lovisa Holdings Ltd (ASX: LOV) and Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME). Largest detractors were Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) and Reliance Worldwide Corp (ASX: RWC).
Largest contributors were investments in gold, lean hogs, canola, Nasdaq, NYFANG and Copper. Largest detractors were natural gas, Japanese government bonds, and Indian index exposure.
Outlook
Through-out February, we will be reaching out to current and future investors to provide updates on Frame Funds Management and our recent strategy development work. There have been many exciting developments on both a corporate and strategy level which we will communicate to everyone.
If you would like to discuss any of these points, please email me at hue@framefunds.com.au or call our office at 02 8668 4877.
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